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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Lottomatica CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi described its merger with Cirsa as a “low-risk proposition”, during an investor call detailing the deal on Wednesday.
The Wednesday announcement promised the merger of the two listed gaming giants would create the second-largest listed global gaming and sports betting operator, with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of approximately €2 billion ($2.3 billion).
Angelozzi, who is set to lead the combined company as CEO, told analysts on the post-announcement call that the deal was expected to be a “low-risk proposition” given the consistent growth demonstrated by both Lottomatica and Cirsa in recent years.
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But the more important question now is what Cubeia does with that capacity. “Because we’re not spending as much time coding, we’re spending more time on the business: talking about value and understanding the domain,” he says.
Rather than simply building what is requested, teams are increasingly expected to understand why something is being built and what value it should create.
As Paul Crisp, Cubeia’s head of marketing, points out: “If the objective is 10% more traffic, for example, how do we measure it?
